We have officially entered the last month of 2025. This year, Bitcoin's performance has undeniably been quite negative.
Although it hit a record high in early October, Bitcoin fell by around 5% overall.
Considering it also had a rather unfavorable November, investors now wonder how Bitcoin will perform in December.
According to historical data, Bitcoin's value in December has not been very impressive on average.
Looking at Bitcoin's monthly returns since 2013, Bitcoin's gains in December are quite modest, at 4.8%.
In fact, Bitcoin's median performance in December shows a decline of 3.2%. Meanwhile, in 2024, Bitcoin was in the red for 7 out of 12 months.
What is more concerning for investors is Bitcoin’s December value when October and November were also negative, as was the case this year. In every year since 2013, if Bitcoin is negative in November, its performance remains low in December.
The only historical example when Bitcoin was low in both October and November was in 2018. In that year, Bitcoin's performance remained negative in December, too.
Based on this historical fact, it is likely that Bitcoin will continue to decline in December 2025, rather than experience the Santa Claus Rally that investors are hoping for.
Of course, historical data does not guarantee for Bitcoin's condition in December 2025. The sample size is still quite small, as Bitcoin itself is only a little over a decade old.
In addition, Bitcoin is being actively integrated with traditional financial technology and financial institutions, which could lead to an increase in value.
Historical data is interesting to analyze and can provide useful insights for investors. However, what impacts price more are Bitcoin’s finite supply, its increasing adoption by institutions and governments as a store of value, and its role as a scarce macro asset that sets itself apart from traditional risky assets.
All of these factors need to be taken into account when conducting a technical analysis of Bitcoin. How does one perform a technical analysis? Follow the steps for cryptocurrency technical analysis in the article Cryptocurrency Technical Analysis: A Complete Guide to Reading the Movements of the Digital Market.
