After a tough couple of months in 2025, Bitcoin is welcoming the new year with renewed optimism.
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $90,230. At present, it is attempting to break through the $90,000 mark several times, and has even touched $94,420 at one point.
However, André Dragosch, Director and Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, believes that Bitcoin's recovery is stalled by fear and concerns of a recession.
A recession is a period when an area’s economy experiences a significant decline. Typically, a recession is defined as a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two consecutive quarters.
A recession is also characterized by rising unemployment, declining consumer spending, reduced business investment, and tighter financial conditions as credit becomes more expensive.
During a recession, investors tend to shy away from high-risk assets, such as Bitcoin, and opt for safer options, including cash, government bonds, or gold.
This situation is what the market is fretting about, and this is affecting the price of Bitcoin. In an interview with CoinTelegraph, Dragosch explained that Bitcoin is “pricing in a recession.” However, he does not believe that a recession will occur.
According to Dragosch, when the market finally realizes that there will be no recession, interest in risk assets will be reinvigorated.
In fact, the absence of a recession could drive Bitcoin's performance to surpass gold.
"It doesn't necessarily mean gold will underperform. It's just that Bitcoin will outperform gold this year in a kind of risk-on environment." Dragosch explained.
Dragosch also presented two observations about Bitcoin.
First, Bitcoin's performance has never been poor for two consecutive years.
Second, Bitcoin has always been either the best or worst asset in any given year.
From these two observations, Dragosch reiterated his optimism for Bitcoin’s bullish potential. "Last year, it was the worst performing asset... So I am pretty confident that this year, it will be the best performing asset."
Granted, the price of speculative assets like Bitcoin is affected by the market’s sentiment toward the coin and the macroeconomic conditions. This is why market sentiment is one of the key factors that should be considered before buying cryptocurrency.
A wise investor should do their due diligence—a thorough crypto analysis before investing. Learn how to analyze cryptocurrency in the article Crypto Analysis for Beginners: Fundamental vs Technical.
