DRX Admin
Bitcoin has been moving sideways in the past day and has fallen about 6% in a week. On the surface, Bitcoin is not going through any dramatic changes. However, four interrelated risk signals are silently present.
Each of these signals will not break the market. However, their simultaneous appearance indicates that Bitcoin is losing market conviction at a sensitive level.
On the 12-hour chart, Bitcoin is forming a head and shoulders pattern. This pattern forms a first high point as the shoulder, the highest point as the head, and then another high point lower than the head as the other shoulder. This pattern occurs when there is push and pull between bullish and bearish forces and signals that a bearish phase is imminent.
For Bitcoin, the head and shoulders pattern reflects a loss of upward momentum. Each rally attempt ends lower than the previous one, with a neckline of $86,430.
Long-term holders refer to wallets that have held Bitcoin for more than a year. On January 21, these wallets sold around 75,950 BTC. The day after, the outflow reached 122,486 BTC.
The 61% increase in a single day was not driven by fear. Currently, Bitcoin holders are still securing profits. The selling was voluntary due to declining confidence in Bitcoin prices for the time being.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their weakest week since November 2025. Just like Bitcoin holders, players in the ETF market have also lost conviction in the current price of Bitcoin.
As ETFs weakened, speculative buyers began entering the market. The group of wallets holding Bitcoin for one week to one month increased by 22% in the past two weeks. This means that Bitcoin is exchanging long-term holders and ETFs for short-term traders who do not provide durable support.
Four risk signals indicate weakening confidence in Bitcoin: a bearish pattern, selling from long-term wallets, weakening ETFs, and speculative inflows.
These four signals are not dangerous when taken individually. However, when combined, they form a bearish warning for Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, these signals should not cause investors to panic. Before making hasty decisions, always conduct a thorough token analysis. Learn how to analyze Bitcoin in the article Crypto Analysis for Beginners: Fundamental vs Technical.
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